Happy Wednesday, Blockfolians
What a ride today was. Bitcoin down 30%. ETH down 40%. Alts hemorrhaging. Newbies freaking out. Exchanges down.
But then something started happening. The long-termers came in and started buying. All of a sudden BTC was only down 9%. The biggest outflow from exchanges in BTC history happened. Some amount of calm returned.
Now the question is what happens next:
Consider four scenarios:
1. It’s over. Complacency shoulder into bear.
2. Double bubble. Fake bear sideways to October’s second bull.
3. This time its different, turbo rekt. Down only.
Apply probabilistic thinking. Trade accordingly.
The bell curve’s revenge.
What do you think?
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What’s the future of the corporate treasury narrative?
Environmental concerns, the Elon tantrums and now this 25% intraday crash indicate corporate treasury demand is very likely dead for the time being.
What do you think? Less correlation going forward?
In a not so distant future people will no longer talk about the “crypto bear market”, but the “BTC bear market”, the “ETH bear market”, the “DeFi bear market”.
People will realize that crypto-SoVs, crypto-commodities, and crypto-equities don’t have to move together.
A Really Big Number We Should Be Paying Attention To
That (continues to be) Cathie Wood’s BTC price target. Don’t freak out.
Look on the brightside