Bitcoin’s price is still consolidating amid the $20K range following a massive crash from $30K in June. This zone also aligns with the 2017 previous ATH and provides psychological support, which – in case it holds – could lead to a relief rally in the short term.
Technical Analysis
Technical and on-chain analysis by Edris
The Daily Chart
As mentioned above, if the price rebounds from the current consolidation range, then the $24K resistance level and the 50-day moving average would be the first major barriers before the $30K supply zone.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below the $17-20K support range, a deeper crash towards the $15K level would be imminent.
Keeping the above in mind, a short-term bullish pullback still remains the most probable scenario, as the price is massively oversold and at a significant support level.
The 4-Hour Chart
As can be seen in the 4-hour timeframe chart below, the price has been fluctuating inside a triangle pattern over the last few weeks.
The triangle pattern could turn into either a continuation or a reversal pattern, depending on whether the price breaks to the upside or the downside. Currently, BTC is testing the higher boundary of the triangle after successfully finding support at the lower boundary a few days ago.
In case of a bullish breakout, a reversal scenario, or at least a short-term bullish pullback towards the $24K and eventually the $30K levels, can be expected. The RSI indicator is also trending above the 50 mark, indicating the relative dominance of the bulls over the market in the last few days.
On-chain Analysis
Bitcoin Whale MVRV
In the past, a market cycle’s bottom has usually formed as the price ranged in ‘extreme fear.’ The majority of market participants are underwater during this phase, and the weaker hands tend to realize massive losses constantly. In comparison, some of the stronger hands continue to HODL through the pain.
The second group mainly consisted of whales, which are investors with large capital who are financially stable and could tolerate more risk than other more minor participants. Whales are usually the last cohort to enter the losing territory, and this period would mark the final phase of the bear market.
One of the most valuable indicators for evaluating the unrealized profits/losses in the market is the MVRV ratio. MVRV is a ratio between market Value and realized value of a set of coins.
As demonstrated by the following Whale MVRV chart, previous bear market bottoms have coincided with Whale MVRV values below 1, which indicates that most whales are at a loss. It is evident that this metric has recently dropped below 1 again, signaling the beginning of the last capitulation phase and probably the cycle’s bottom in the next few weeks or months.
