The year is coming to an end, and it is fair to draw conclusions about the crypto world. Thus, a clear picture is needed regarding the price forecasts of three of the most important crypto assets on the market: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.
In addition, it is also important to take a look at what will be the future of CEXs (Centralized Exchanges) after the tragic events of 2022 and the rapid expansion of the NFT and metaverse worlds.
Bitcoin predictions: black swan in 2023?
Under the trends of tightening regulation and a looming economic recession, there are many factors that could cause Bitcoin to encounter a black swan event in 2023. In fact, an important lower support level for Bitcoin would be $10,000.
In 2023, the Fed’s monetary policy is likely to move away from tightening controls, otherwise the economy will fall into a deeper recession. In the case of more flexible policies, and if regulation can be further implemented, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will begin to recover.
Although Bitcoin’s trend is by no means stable, one is quite optimistic about its upward trajectory. With the certainty of a Bitcoin halving event in 2024 and increased cryptocurrency demand and adoption, the price could enter a range of $30,000-$50,000 and close at the resistance level of around $40,000 by the end of 2023. Other cryptocurrencies will follow suit, perhaps doubling.
In general, there will be no significant events in the first quarter of 2023 that will radically change market movement. The cryptocurrency sector is still under pressure, which means that rapid development and recovery should not be expected.
Most likely, in the first three months of 2023, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $17,000 and $18,000, and, except for a few points at which it will fall below established levels, it will periodically show growth, only to fall back. A thaw could occur no earlier than February 2023, and a full recovery should be expected on the eve of the halving, in March 2024.
Let’s delve deeper: Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash
The two investments, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, can be judged on several points. First, the market cycle in 2023, whose overall liquidity may be better. Still, the overall probability of reduced liquidity is relatively high, so it would be better to be more inclined to invest in BTC, which has high acceptance and stability.
Second, there are external stimulus events: the half-life of BCH is likely to be around 7 April 2024 and that of BTC around 2 May 2024. Since both assets have half-life expectations, BTC’s half-life expectation has the greatest impact on the market.
So, one is more inclined to invest in BTC to take the majority and BCH can be allocated to small positions. Finally, buying strategies on the left and right sides are to be considered, which are different.
In fact, BTC is suitable for buying in lots on the left side of the lower oscillating range, and BCH is suitable for buying later on the right side after capital intervention and breaking the key pressure level, so as to get more profits in the short term.
Therefore, in terms of positions, BTC should occupy the majority and BCH should occupy the small position. To summarize: in 2023, BTC can be allocated in lots on the left side, representing 95% of the total position, and BCH is bought on the right side, representing 5%.
Positive or negative Ethereum predictions? Hard to tell because of volatility
It is quite difficult to predict the price movement of ETH for the next 12 months because the currency is so volatile. In addition, the value of an asset can be affected by external events that cannot be predicted at the moment. Therefore, two scenarios can be considered: negative and positive.
In the case of the negative scenario, the value of the currency can be expected to decrease to the levels of $1077-$1100. The key role in such a scenario will be played by short-selling speculators, who continue to move a bearish market.
In addition, the fear and greed index is currently in the red zone with a sell recommendation, which is a sign of an ongoing bearish trend that will continue into the first quarter of 2023. A market thaw could be expected no earlier than spring 2023.
At that time, ETH will most likely find the bottom and begin to gradually recover. In the fall of 2023, the currency could reach $1,400 and take hold until the end of 2023.
However, if a positive scenario occurs, warming will occur in March-April 2023, and the activity of metaverse users and NFTs will increase the price of the token. In this case, we should expect the coin price to recover to the $1350-$1400 level with further growth.
By the end of 2023, ETH could reach a value of $1,500 and take hold at this level. A similar picture will be observed in the non-fungible token market: trading volumes will decline and the number of traders on trading floors will decrease.
Solana predictions for 2023: the difficulties following the FTX collapse
As we know, unfortunately, the collapse of FTX has had a great impact on Solana’s ecosystem. Solana’s TVL, in fact, fell by more than 70%, from $1 billion in November to $280 million on 14 December.
Most of its projects have been affected by FTX and Alameda, which generally have high market value but low uptake. On the other hand, this is also a more systematic stress test for Solana: it is far from being eliminated.
Apart from the impact of FTX and Alameda, 2023 is an opportunity for Solana to demonstrate that it can become a more decentralized and equitable public chain. More than 750 projects were submitted in the last hackathon. Solana may take longer to get rid of the impact of FTX, but in 2023 we can still pay attention to outstanding developers and projects and observe whether Solana can rise again.
In general, the best cryptocurrencies to bet on in 2023 seem to be confirmed as always BTC and ETH, as they represent the mainstream projects fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. UNI and AAVE, on the other hand, benefit from the FUD around CEXs. The primary DEFI will be adopted by the market and increase its market share.
On the other hand, Arbitrum recently surpassed Polygon, becoming the public chain second only to ETH/BSC, in terms of TVL, which shows the popularity of the fund. L2 tokens, such as Arbitrum, Starknet and Zksync, which will be issued in the future, will support more applications and are worth considering.
CEXs, NFTs and metaverse: everything to know for 2023
Speaking of cryptocurrency trends in 2023, there are several main directions that will be seen in the market. First, stricter CEX regulation
Indeed, the negative experience of FTX has proven once again that regulation and transparency of centralized cryptocurrency exchanges is a necessary step toward a safe and sustainable market.
The FATF, the European Union, and many other regulatory institutions are already ready to tighten controls on the operations of CEXs. Among them, Bitget is a fully transparent and open exchange.
In fact, in early December, it announced its testing of Merkle tree reserves with a third-party auditing firm and allows its users to verify their assets on the website.
There will also be new opportunities for decentralized finance and lending. After observing three major insolvency events this year, including Luna, Three Arrows Capital, and Alameda Research, centralized lending activity has been further disproved, and people’s confidence and demand for “decentralized lending” will further increase, thus ushering in long-term opportunities and innovation for decentralized finance (DeFi). This will lead to the disappearance of most centralized lending activities.
Finally, also in 2023 we will see the rapid development of the NFT sector and the metaverse. In fact, NFTs are expected to become an integral part of GameFi and the entertainment market.
If we look at the past year, we can see that in 2022 several major movie studios and music labels had already released their own NFTs, and this trend will continue in 2023.
As for the metaverse, however, this will receive special attention in the coming year. In fact, major brands will begin to integrate their products and services into the metaverse, and financial sector institutions such as stock exchanges, banks, and credit companies will provide services to virtual users. Of course, this will involve some changes related to the regulation and control of activities in the metaverse. Such a process has already begun.
