Widely followed economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger says he feels the bottom is likely in and a volatile move to the upside could be taking shape.
In a new live stream with Scott Melker, Krüger says he’s expecting crypto markets to enter a bullish phase.
Krüger says that barring a black swan event, he doesn’t think the S&P 500 will collapse down to $3,000.
Instead, he says equities will likely trade within a range, giving Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets the chance to de-correlate from the traditional markets and move to the upside.
“For me, [predicting a black swan event is] getting into crystal balling territory. I can’t make the forecast. So that’s basically based on that, my ignorance. As to what’s going to happen in that regard, I think that it’s most likely that equities stay range-bound, capped by interest rates.
On a historical basis, comparing equities with rates and real rates, they are actually quite high. It’s definitely a headwind. To me, that means range-bound and basically almost no upside on equities. What Bitcoin has, what crypto has, [are these] idiosyncratic variables that can truly, just for brief periods, make it completely de-correlate and go ballistic either way, up or down. I’m thinking up.”
While staying long, Krüger warns if inflation doesn’t decline more, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates higher than expected which could send crypto to new lows.
“I think the bottom is in, yeah. I am playing the long side. But I could definitely be wrong. Shit could happen and the bottom could go through. Mainly, inflation could end up being actually sticky as some of the bears are saying based on how payrolls and the US employment market is still really hot.
So if that doesn’t give some leeway and core services, basically [if the] inflation wall doesn’t come down as expected we could see the Fed pushing up to 6.5% percent and then… it would make sense to trade new lows.”
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