Ex-Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal says that a massive bubble cycle could be on the horizon for crypto markets.
In a new interview with crypto influencer Scott Melker, the macro guru and Real Vision chief executive says that while he believes the current market cycle is probably a normal one, there’s also a 20% chance it will be a “gigantic bubble cycle.”
“Here’s my probability set: 60% chance it’s a regular cycle, somewhat like the last cycle but maybe a bit more like the previous cycle – like 2017 that got a little bit crazy. There’s a 20% chance that maybe it all gets front-loaded because we’ve got all the retail demand, and it actually is a shorter cycle than expected.
If you think the previous cycle was actually a bit stunted versus where people’s expectations were, maybe this is stunted in terms of time. The other outcome I’ve got, the other 20% chance, is that this is a gigantic bubble cycle, somewhere between the 2012-2013 version and the 2015 because everyone can now participate and total madness will ensue.
And I don’t know which one of the three it will be, but they’ve all got a decent chance.”
Pal says investor sentiment points toward the belief of a shorter cycle. However, he says that while they may be right in terms of prices rising, they’re likely wrong about the length of the cycle.
“Everyone was a little shocked we didn’t have a final leg the last time around, so they’ve now got that imprint… so now they’re all expecting it to be a smaller cycle. And I always look for where the crowd can be wrong but still be right, which is [that] it goes up, but it goes up more [than they think].”
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