Polymarket records a volume of 1 billion dollars in July: strong speculation for the US Trump-Harris presidential elections

Polymarket has reached a significant milestone for its platform in the midst of the hype for the US presidential elections, with Trump and Harris vying for the White House. While Republicans and Democrats clash in one of the most heated political debates of the last decade, the cryptographic prediction market records trading volumes of 1 billion dollars.

Let’s see everything in detail below.

Polymarket: 1 billion dollars in volume just in the month of July

On Polymarket, tensions are rising for the US presidential elections, while Donald Trump and Kamala Harris complete the final stages of their electoral campaigns.

The withdrawal of Joe Biden from the elections due to his physical conditions has only increased the bets of traders for the results of this major event.

According to Dune Analytics, in the month of July the famous forecasting platform recorded a volume exceeding 1 billion dollars.

This is an absolute record for Polymarket: over a third of the cumulative volume in the history of the exchange was recorded just this month.

It is worth noting in any case that from January 2024 the “Bet Volume” is taking off, following the growing popularity of PolyMarket.

In particular, from January to June the volumes were around 350 million dollars.

In July, however, there was an explosion of bets for the votes related to the US presidential elections, triggering a boom in crypto bets.

The event that has attracted the most volumes recently was “Kamala President by Friday 26”, with a negative final outcome. In total, there were 2,312 bets, for a total exchange value of 4.38 million dollars.

While the clash between Trump and Harris draws the attention of traders, the assets held within the “Safes” section of Polymarket are also increasing. 

In the last month, the AUM of the platform has more than doubled, going from approximately 6 million dollars to the current 13.39 million. 

Much of this amount is held in stablecoin USDC. 

We remind you that on Polymarket, in addition to voting and political events, you can speculate on the outcome of many other situations. The ones that stand out the most concern sports, Olympic games, crypto, business, and more.

US Presidential Elections: the voting projections on Polymarket favor Trump over Harris

As of today, the majority of the votes for the US presidential elections on Polymarket see Donald Trump as the favored candidate over the Democratic opponents.

The entrepreneur and American television personality, recovering from a deadly attack in Pennsylvania, indeed maintains the lead with a probability of winnings equal to 57%.

On the opposite side, Kamala Harris, who took over Biden’s position as the main candidate of the center-left coalition, is at a disadvantage with 39%.

Not very relevant is the share of the pro-bitcoin candidate Robert F.Kennedy Jr, who attracts only 1% of the estimated votes. The same share also for Michelle Obama, who most likely will not sit in the same chair occupied by her husband from 2009 to 2017.

In total, over 429 million dollars have been bet on which candidate will win the title of President of the United States of America on November 4th. 

In the last 24 hours, the forecasts in favor of Trump have decreased by 2%, while those in favor of Harris are up by 1%.

Very interesting to observe the geographical distribution in the US of pro Trump and pro Harris voters, or more generally of the democrats (blue) and republicans (red).

Generally, each State of the Country has its own strong political orientation, with most areas being completely blue or red voting zones.

States like Florida, Kansas, Texas, Nebraska, Utah, Kentucky, etc. are predominantly supporters of Trump and the Republicans. States like New York, California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, and Illinois are instead in support of Harris.

Only a few exceptions like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin do not have strong political polarization.

Equally interesting to note how despite this platform being used predominantly for betting on electoral votes in the US, Polymarket is not available to American users. Due to the stringent regulations regarding trading and “securities” products, Polymarket is not authorized to provide these speculative services to citizens residing in the US.

Polymarket launches the newsletter “The Oracle” in conjunction with the Paris Olympics

As the fever for betting on the outcome of the US presidential elections contested by Trump and Harris grows, Polymarket seeks to innovate.

A few days ago, the platform hired the expert electoral analyst Nate Silver, aiming to fully leverage the financial growth of the previsioni market.

On July 24, it also integrated the MoonPay payment platform with the aim of simplifying the onboarding of new users. Since last week, it has been possible to make your own crypto bets, funding the account with a debit or credit card.

The latest innovation introduced by Polymarket, however, concerns a new super interesting newsletter that allows the broker’s clients to stay up to date with speculations.

In conjunction with the start of the Olympics in Paris, which introduces many new events on Polymarket, “The Oracle” has been introduced.

By pasting your email address into the search bar present in this link, it is possible to follow real-time news on multiple topics simultaneously.

From sports with the Olympics, to politics with the clash between Trump and Harris, and even events in the crypto world, the information is plentiful.

Thanks to The Oracle it will be much easier to stay updated and be able to bet consciously on what is happening in the real world.

With this feature, Polymarket is also able to incorporate the markets into its posts, making your stories more visually appealing and offering a direct link to the traders