Large cliff unlocks are primarily bearish, and relative underperformance versus the rest of the market is most evident seven days before and seven days after the unlock event. Smaller cliff unlocks (less than five percent of circulating supply) have noisier impacts on token price and are more easily overwhelmed by idiosyncratic demand from new exchange listings, product launches or catalysts, sector outperformance, or narrative hype. Particularly large unlocks that are highly anticipated can have surprising moves to the upside as well. However, on longer time horizons, it is difficult for a token with large monthly unlocks to outperform the broader market.
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