Last night, at the ABC studios in Philadelphia, the much-anticipated debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris was broadcast, triggering the unexpected reaction of the price of Bitcoin.
The democrat overnight seems to have narrowed the gap with the republican, even taking the lead according to Polymarket data.
As we approach the US presidential elections in November, the situation is heating up and forecasts are starting to have a greater impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
Where are we headed? Let’s delve into the matter below.
The relationship between the price of Bitcoin and the outcome of the US presidential elections: forecasts for November
It is now publicly known that the clash between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is influencing the price of Bitcoin, determining its direction in the short term.
The fight for supremacy in the election campaign in relation to the upcoming USA presidential elections on November 18, strongly influences the behavior of cryptographic traders.
Basically, there is the belief that the victory of the tycoon could favor a growth of Bitcoin and the entire crypto sector. In recent months, Trump has in fact repeatedly reiterated his sympathy for the sector, stating that, if elected, he will support the “bitcoinizzazione” of the United States.
In his plans there is also the inclusion of cryptocurrency within the basket of reserve assets of the American Treasury, given its historical performance.
On the other hand, the potential entry of Kamala Harris into the White House seems to be seen as a threat to the crypto industry.
Democrats have always opposed the technological-financial innovation of blockchain, especially during the current Biden mandate.
Indicatively, even if deep down neither of the two candidates probably cares about the future of Bitcoin, the victory of one or the other could lead to completely opposite graphical outcomes.
The analysts at Bernstein expect a crypto rally in the 80-90 thousand dollars range if Donald Trump wins. On the opposite end, Kamala Harris’s victory is anticipated by experts with a price drop down to 30-40 thousand dollars.
In the meantime, until November, the orange currency could easily travel in the macro range from 50 to 70 thousand dollars.
The electoral college initially favors the lead of Donald Trump
Last night, a few hours before the start of the electoral debate between Trump and Harris, the price of Bitcoin started to rise rapidly.
From 18:00 to 22:00 (UTC +2) the bull increased the quotations by about 2%, bringing BTC close to 58,000 dollars.
The reason for this brief pump, later canceled in the following hours, would be attributed to a prospect published by the journalist and pollster Nate Silver.
He has indeed published in his own newspaper “Silver Bulletin” an update regarding the vote forecasts of the various electoral colleges.
While the popular vote data shows a more neutral situation, with a slight advantage for Harris, the electoral college data places Trump in clear bull.
In detail, the republican would be favored with a percentage of 64.4%, against the 35.3% of the democratic candidate.
Until last night, even the data from the prediction market Polymarket highlight Trump’s advantage with 52 percentage points against Harris’s 46 points.
Even on September 6, the billionaire entrepreneur reached the highest advantage of the last few weeks before the elections, extending the gap to 53 points.