For some time now, the trend of Ethereum’s price has been underperforming compared to Bitcoin, so much so that it cannot get back above 3,000 USD.
However, some forecasts are circulating according to which this trend could reverse.
The price of Ethereum remains below 3,000 USD, while Bitcoin soars
During the course of 2024, the price of ETH reached an annual peak in early March at approximately 4,100 USD.
In other words, it did not manage to record new all-time highs, as Bitcoin did.
Furthermore, starting from mid-March, it began a decline that might have only stopped in September.
In fact, on September 6th it had dropped below 2,200 USD, but since then it has always remained above this threshold. Moreover, for the past ten days, it has also always been above 2,500 USD.
These levels are much lower than the peaks of 2024, so much so that currently Ethereum is still at -46% from the all-time highs of 2021, while Bitcoin is only at -13% from the all-time highs of March 2024.
Ethereum vs. Bitcoin
To better understand this trend, it is useful to analyze the historical trend of the price of Ethereum expressed in Bitcoin.
In fact, the current rate of 0.04 BTC per ETH is so low that we have to go back to April 2021 to find the last time it was at these levels.
During the altseason of April/May 2021, Ethereum had even risen to 0.077 BTC, only to reach 0.085 BTC in November of the same year, when it recorded the all-time high in USD.
Until the moment of the transition to Proof-of-Stake, which took place in September 2022, the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin had remained above 0.08 BTC, although not consistently, but for the past two years it seems to do nothing but fall.
So it has been two years that the price trend of Ethereum underperforms that of Bitcoin, but this should not be surprising, because in reality it is perfectly normal.
Often ETH outperforms BTC during bull runs, but underperforms it during bear markets and the early stages of growth of the crypto market. These latter stages are generally initiated by Bitcoin.
Predictions on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum: ETH above 10,000 USD
In light of this, it seems quite simple to predict that, in the event of a new bull run, the above trend could reverse, and Ethereum could start to outperform Bitcoin.
Indeed, taken as a reference the all-time high of November 2021 of the price of Ethereum, set at almost 4,900 USD, there are those who believe that next year it could reach 10,000 USD.
In particular, the head of macroeconomic research at Global Macro Investor, Julien Bittel, pointed out how the trend of ETH price during 2024 closely resembles that of 2023.
In 2023 the price first rose from 1,500 USD to over 2,000 USD, only to drop back to 1,600 USD but only to take off at the end of the year reaching 3,500 USD.
Making the necessary proportions, if the end of 2024 were to replicate the trend of 2023, it could close the year well above 10,000 USD, perhaps even around 20,000.
However, a comparison with the previous year is not enough to support a forecast, but there are still several analysts who set 10,000 USD as a possible target by the end of the year.
In fact, there are similarities also with the bull phases of 2017-2018 and 2020-2021.
The trend reversal
The key point seems to be the trend reversal of ETH’s performance compared to BTC.
For now, such a reversal has not yet occurred, given that ETH is at its lowest on BTC since April 2021, and it might not even happen in the medium/short term.
It should be remembered that generally bull run crypto are started by Bitcoin, so much so that in the early stages of a bull run crypto Bitcoin tends to outperform the prices of all the main altcoins.
However, in case of the start of a true bull run, the altcoins could follow the rise of BTC, although underperforming it, and thus the price of Ethereum could also start to grow again, albeit less than that of Bitcoin.
This could bring Ethereum back to its highs, but it would most likely not be enough to reach 10,000 USD. At some point, however, in the case of a bull run, the rise of BTC could slow down, and at that point, there would be conditions for a significant trend reversal, should the bull run continue.
Therefore, since Bitcoin could drive a potential bull run even until the early months of 2025, it is not certain that 10,000 USD for ETH will arrive by the end of the year, while it seems more likely that they could be postponed to next year.
Obviously, there is no certainty, so much so that it would be a mistake to take the bull run for granted. Generally, however, Bitcoin cycles tend to repeat themselves, and after the US presidential elections, the price of BTC has always entered a bull run phase.
