Pseudo-bull forecasts on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum for November

Despite the recent price setbacks, Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to be on the right track to resume the bull market with positive forecasts.

The outlook for November is actually pseudo-bullish: generally, there should be growth, but there are some factors that could slow down the process.

Let’s see what elements we need to pay attention to in the coming weeks.

Latest forecasts on Bitcoin and Ethereum: the macro factors that could favor price growth

Today the prezzo di Bitcoin is back near 69,000 dollars after a bear weekend, while Ethereum has recovered to 2,500 dollars. 

Experts suggest potentially bull forecasts in the short term for the two crypto assets, with some factors that could have a decisive impact on their performance.

The most important of these concerns the USA presidential elections on November 5th, with Trump’s victory offering more positive momentum on the quotations.

At the moment the Republican is favored with a forecast of 66% against 34% for Kamala Harris, according to Polymarket.

Following on November 7, there will be the much-anticipated FOMC, with the Federal Reserve expressing its views on the situation of the interest rates.

According to the CME Group, the central bank will continue with quantitative easing, cutting bond yields by 25 basis points and injecting liquidity into the markets.

Already by themselves, these two macro factors should be sufficient to fuel a bullish trend on the price of risk-on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

ETF and crypto news: positive data and forecasts

To fuel the positive forecasts on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum, possible super bull news arriving for the market is added.

In fact, Microsoft, a world leader in the IT field, is reportedly considering the possibility of purchasing BTC. If the company’s board of directors gives the green light, then we might expect a similar movement on Bitcoin to the one observed with Tesla in 2021.

The entry into the sector of a giant like Microsoft could indeed provide the necessary push that is missing to mark new all-time price highs.

Finally, we also mention the panorama degli ETF spot BTC, where the latest data indicate a momentum of positive flows.

In the last session alone, 400 million dollars of investments were recorded as inflows, bringing the Total Net Assets to 65.2 billion dollars.

Overall, in the last 11 days of trading, the ETFs have maintained a trend of continuous inflows, with the exception of just one day of slight outflow.

Ethereum ETFs show less bullish spirit but still highlight strong speculative attention on the product.

This trend reflects the sustained optimism of traditional Wall Street investors about the future of cryptocurrencies.

What could trigger a bear market in crypto prices?

Despite the various bull forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term, there are also factors that could lead to a bear price collapse.

First and foremost, an (unexpected) victory of Harris against Trump in the USA elections could negatively shake the market, sinking the more fragile assets.

Although the democrat has also revealed her support towards the crypto world, it is likely that investors would perceive the news as a black swan.

Furthermore, on the macro front, even an excessive cut maneuver by the FED, with a potential cut of 50 points, could lead to a bear reading of prices.

A cut so marked (for two sessions in a row) would mean that the central bank no longer has control over the galloping inflation.

Maximum attention to price volatility during the next week. 

In the adjacent days, there will be several false movements expected, both in bull and bear directions.

Alarm bell also for possible shake-out of the open interest on derivative markets of Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the last 24 hours, the value of the sum of open positions has risen by over 6%, highlighting activity in speculations.

However, often the excess of leverage and greed punishes the more avid investors with a reset, liquidating several positions in the market.

Finally, attention must also be paid to the sales of companies and whales, which in the middle of the bull market could offload assets to raise cash.

The same Ethereum Foundation is selling ETH on a weekly basis, creating a constant selling pressure that could negatively influence the overall market sentiment. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Forecast: Possible Slight Bull in November

Looking ahead to the month of November, Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, has reported slightly bullish forecasts for the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to the expert, while the most anticipated macro events of the year are taking place, the two cryptocurrencies could mark a slight acceleration of the positive push.

In particular, it is expected that Bitcoin will register a new all-time high with a 70% probability. The king of the market will reach 75,000 dollars and will be traded in the range from the high down to 66,000 dollars.

For Ethereum, however, although the scenario is also positive, the optimism appears more subdued.

The second currency by market capitalization will not register a new all-time high according to forecasts, but it will still increase its price.

From next week onwards,  ETH is expected in the price range from 2,350 to 3,200 dollars. The crypto still suffers from a condition of subordination compared to BTC, with the sector dominance favoring the orange coin.

On the altcoin front, we notice the first bull recovery movements and the first reversal chart patterns after a summer marked by bear trends.

Most alternatives to Bitcoin still show a performance that is largely inferior in comparison, but it seems that we are approaching the Alt Season.

If liquidity were to improve, it might be worth monitoring the potential activity of altcoins.