Crypto markets have retreated over the weekend following a Bitcoin-powered rally last week, and more volatility is expected in the next several days.
The US presidential election on Tuesday will cause short-term volatility as a Trump win is likely to be positive for crypto, while a Harris victory will have the opposite effect.
In addition to a new president, there are several key economic reports and a Federal Reserve meeting this week.
Economic Events Nov. 4 to 8
Last week’s crypto market retreat was partially driven by the latest Core PCE report, which cast a shadow on the Fed’s rate-cut outlook.
Tuesday will see the release of October’s ISM Services PMI report which depicts business conditions in the US services sector. These reports are leading economic indicators used by economists and analysts to gain insights into changing economic conditions.
Some jobs and employment reports are expected on Thursday, which also help determine the health of labor markets and overall economic direction.
Friday sees November’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations preliminary readings. These reports reveal the results of a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels and views of long-term inflation pressures in the US.
Key Events This Week:
1. U.S. Presidential Election – Tuesday
2. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data – Tuesday
3. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
4. Fed Interest Rate Decision – Thursday
5. MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday
6. ~15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 3, 2024
The Federal Reserve will make its rate policy decision on Thursday, and analysts are overwhelmingly expecting a 0.25 basis point cut. The CME Fed Watch tool estimates this at 98% probability.
The Kobeissi letter labeled this week as the busiest of the year as the US presidential election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
“Traders across markets appear to be reducing risk and bracing for more volatility,” reported Bloomberg on Nov. 4, following a slide for tech stocks and crypto over the past few days.
“Crypto traders are diverging on the election result, with the options market turning from aggressively bullish to a more hedge-focused approach,” it stated in reference to derivatives markets.
Crypto Market Outlook
Markets retreated over the weekend, with total capitalization dropping around $50 billion to $2.4 trillion by Monday morning.
Bitcoin sank to $67,570 on Sunday, its lowest level for just over a week. However, Asian traders pushed prices back above $69,000 on Monday morning.
Ethereum was hit harder, dumping to $2,400 before a marginal recovery, and the altcoins have been in decline for the past few days as markets brace for more volatility this week.
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