In the last few weeks, the value of XRP, the cryptocurrency launched by Ripple many years ago, has recorded stellar gains.
The rise in the price of XRP, however, has been very broad and fast, and this suggests that a mini-bubble is inflated and ready to burst.
The growth of the value of the crypto XRP (Ripple)
XRP was launched on the crypto markets back in 2012, when the cryptocurrency was still called Ripple, as well as the company that launched it.
The first year in which it recorded record gains was 2017.
At the time, after the second Bitcoin halving and the first US presidential elections won by Trump, its value in a year went from less than a cent of a dollar to over $2, only to close that bullrun on January 4, 2018, even above $3.8.
It was a true and proper gigantic speculative bubble, which inflated very quickly, and then burst within the span of nine months.
For accuracy, in 2017 it first rose to $0.3, and then recorded a second, parabolic rise at the end of the year.
When the bubble burst, the price returned to around $0.3.
Since then, Ripple’s crypto has never again managed to rise above $3.
The “freno” of 2020
During the subsequent bear-market, the price of XRP even fell below $0.2, which is still much higher than the price at the beginning of 2017, but lower compared to the price reached in May of that same year after the first phase of that bullrun.
In other words, although the 2017 one was indeed a bull run upwards, in its second phase it generated a real bubble that then in the following years ended up bursting completely.
However, at the end of 2020, after the third Bitcoin halving and Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential elections, it seemed it could recover. In fact, it managed to climb back above $0.6, but at that point, the cold shower arrived.
The SEC in fact sued Ripple, and XRP, with the accusation that their crypto was an unregistered security sold illegally.
That problem acted as a sort of brake on the bullrun of 2021 for XRP, which in fact did not even manage to approach $2.
Furthermore, in 2022 it returned to those $0.3 that had in fact lasted for five years.
The turning point of 2024
A first small turning point came in 2023, when a judge ruled that the SEC’s accusation that XRP should have been considered an unregistered security was incorrect.
At that point, the price of XRP rose back up to $0.8, but only for a brief moment, because the lawsuit against Ripple was still open.
Even during the first half of 2024, despite the closure of the case against Ripple, the value of XRP did not manage to rise above that figure.
The real turning point came first with Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential elections, and then especially with the announcement of the resignation of Gary Gensler, the current chairman of the SEC to whom the agency’s anti-crypto policy is attributed.
The fact is that Trump is a pro-crypto president, and therefore he will most likely appoint a new SEC chairman favorable to the development of the crypto sector.
These two pieces of news have suddenly removed the brake that for almost four years had prevented the value of XRP from returning to its former glory.
The possible sell-the-news
The consequence was a very large and fast bullrun, because in less than a month the value of Ripple’s crypto went from 0.5$ to over 2.5$, with a peak even above 2.7$.
The problem is that, looking at the chart, the growth of the last few weeks seems parabolic more or less like that of the end of 2017, even if back then in just over a month it went from $0.2 to $3.8.
All this suggests two things.
The first is that, at least in theory, the current bullrun of XRP could still have room for growth in the short term.
The second is that, if it is indeed a bubble in some ways similar to the one from seven years ago, it might be about to burst.
The fact is that tomorrow, Wednesday, December 4, 2024, the announcement of the launch of Ripple’s new dollar-collateralized stablecoin, RLUSD (Ripple USD), is expected, and this news could also trigger a classic sell-the-news.
In other words, between today and tomorrow, many profit-taking actions could also occur for those who are speculating on XRP, having perhaps bought it in the first 10 months of 2024 or even in 2023.
However, even if this happens, the bubble could still inflate further, as it did at the end of 2017 when it burst only in the first days of the following January.
XRP (Ripple): the relationship with the value of Bitcoin
There is another parameter to take into consideration.
The current bullrun of XRP was unleashed especially when the first phase of the bull run of Bitcoin ended following Trump’s victory.
In other terms, in an initial phase, Bitcoin grew especially, and less XRP, while in a second phase, the growth of Bitcoin slowed down, until it stopped, while that of XRP accelerated.
If Bitcoin were to start growing again, it could drain capital from the crypto market, favoring a correction of XRP.
In particular, a turning point is expected for Thursday the 5th, and although it is not yet known in which direction it will go, in theory it is possible to imagine that this turning point could restart the bullrun of Bitcoin.
Therefore, the picture for XRP is still favorable, but in reality, it is less bright than it might appear at a superficial analysis.
