ADA (Cardano) is among the cryptos that suffered the most after the record liquidations over the weekend, but it already seems to be showing signs of recovery.
Multi-timeframe Analysis
D1 (daily) – neutral scenario with cautious bias
On D1 ADA is priced at 0.72, below EMA20 (0.78), EMA200 (0.79), and EMA50 (0.81).
The structure indicates that the underlying trend is not yet bullish: as long as the price remains below these averages, the rebounds risk being technical.
RSI at 41.25 indicates weak but not extreme momentum.
Negative MACD (-0.04 vs -0.02; hist -0.02), consistent with bearish pressure.
The Bollinger Bands (average 0.79, upper band 0.93, lower band 0.66) show the price in the lower half of the channel: any rise towards 0.78–0.79 will face significant tests.
ATR14 at 0.09: significant volatility, fundamental risk management.
H1 (hourly) – rebound, but the 200-period acts as resistance
On H1 the price is 0.72, above EMA20 (0.70) and EMA50 (0.69), but below EMA200 (0.75).
The intraday rebound is evident, with RSI 67.97 near overbought: potential profit-taking possible.
Flat MACD (0.01/0.01; hist 0.00), sign of fragile equilibrium.
The Bollinger (0.67–0.73, mid 0.70) show the price near the upper band: a strong breakout is needed to extend the movement.
Pivot H1: PP 0.72, R1 0.73, S1 0.72.
M15 – short-term positive momentum
On M15 the regime is bullish: price 0.72 in line with EMA20 (0.72), above EMA50 (0.71) and EMA200 (0.69).
RSI 61.38 supports the rebound, while the MACD is neutral (0.00/0.00).
Band 0.70–0.73 (mid 0.71): limited push space, dependent on surpassing 0.73–0.74.
Pivot M15: concentrated at 0.72, congestion signal.
Trigger: closures above 0.73–0.74 (R1 H1/D1) with consistent volumes.
Targets: 0.78 (EMA20 D1), then 0.79 (EMA200 D1) and 0.81 (EMA50 D1).
Invalidation: return below 0.70 (S1 D1).
Risk management: use ATR D1 0.09 as a reference; technical stops 0.50–1.00 ATR from the entry zone.
Bearish
Trigger: rejected between 0.73–0.74 and loss of 0.70.
Target: 0.66 (lower band D1).
Invalidation: stable recovery above 0.74 and surpassing 0.78.
Risk: calibrate the position on the ATR range 0.09; on H1/M15 the ATR 0.01 is useful for intraday scalability.
Neutral (main scenario D1)
As long as the price remains between 0.70 and 0.74, the market is in a wait-and-see phase.
Operations: prioritize mean reversion on pivots (PP 0.72) and take profit near the edges of the range.
Directional trigger: expected only with closures above 0.74 or below 0.70.
References: pivot/EMA for confirmations and invalidations.
Market Context
Total Market Capitalization: 4.03 trillion USD (+4.83% 24h).
BTC Dominance: 57.01%.
Sentiment (Fear & Greed): 38 (Fear).
Short-term recovery context, but still cautious: high dominance and moderate fear can limit altcoins like ADA in bullish extensions, until technical confirmations arrive on the Cardano chart.
DeFi Ecosystem on Cardano
The DEX on Cardano show mixed dynamics:
Minswap: total fees 4,057,160,577; daily average 3,943,345.98; changes 1d -57.57%, 7d +97.41%, 30d -3.13%.
Splash Protocol: total 236,732,109; daily average 697,974.38; changes 1d -55.17%, 7d -49.67%, 30d -86.96%.
SundaeSwap V2: total 256,578,741; daily average 494,435.37; changes 1d -53.06%, 7d +66.05%, 30d -53.39%.
WingRiders: total 376,247,933; daily average 454,509.90; changes 1d -65.41%, 7d +81.66%, 30d -6.73%.
MuesliSwap: total 431,096,688; daily average 44,434.34; changes 1d -71.45%, 7d -38.45%, 30d -69.73%.
Data highlighting on-chain volatility and variable activity; the triggers remain technical (pivot, EMA, RSI, MACD).
In summary
Main scenario: neutral on the daily chart (D1), with slight bearish pressure below the EMAs.
Price: 0.72, in line with the D1 pivot (PP 0.72); resistance nearby at 0.74 and support at 0.70.
RSI D1: 41.25 – weak buyer strength; negative MACD and below the signal.
H1 and M15: show a rebound with high RSI and price above the fast EMAs, but EMA200 H1 at 0.75 remains an obstacle.
ATR D1: 0.09 – wide volatility; use ATR for risk management and pivot/EMA as trigger and invalidation.
Disclaimer: analysis for informational purposes, does not constitute financial advice. Use only verified data (FACTS).
