Tron (TRX/USDT): D1 neutral at 0.32, compressed volatility and close levels

You are currently viewing Tron (TRX/USDT): D1 neutral at 0.32, compressed volatility and close levels

Like the rest of the market, the price of Tron (TRX) has also suffered due to the record liquidations that have hit the crypto market.

Today, however, it already seems to be recovering. Let’s see how TRX could bounce back from this hard hit.

Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis of Tron (TRX)

D1 (daily)

TRX trades at 0.32. The price is below EMA20 (0.33) and EMA50 (0.34), but remains above EMA200 (0.31): medium-term structure still intact, short-term under slight pressure.

The RSI at 40.87 indicates a predominance of sellers, without excesses.

The MACD is flat (line 0, signal 0, histogram 0), consistent with a sideways phase.

The Bollinger Bands show mid at 0.34, upper band at 0.35, and lower band at 0.32: the price is anchored to the lower band, indicating a risk of further testing of supports if it does not recover the median.

ATR14 at 0.01 confirms contained volatility.

The pivot point (PP) is 0.32 and, unusually, both R1 and S1 also coincide at 0.32: the pivots do not provide level separation and should be integrated with EMA and Bollinger.

H1 (hourly)

Closing at 0.32 with EMA20 = 0.32 and EMA50 = 0.32 flattened; EMA200 at 0.33 above the price.

RSI 64.28 indicates an intraday rebound, but with nearby resistance at EMA200 (0.33).

Narrow Bollinger Bands (mid 0.32; up 0.33; low 0.32) and ATR14 at 0 indicate intraday compression.

Pivot H1 at 0.32: central level of the range.

M15

Regime bullish, closing 0.32 with EMA20 = EMA50 = EMA200 = 0.32 aligned: micro-uptrend but still within a low volatility context (Bollinger up 0.32; low 0.32) and MACD at 0.

RSI 60.72 indicates slight buyer pressure.

Pivot M15 at 0.32.

Candlestick chart of Tron price (TRX/USDT), Binance market. Source: TradingView

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Key Levels

Level Value (USDT) Observations
Support 1 0.32 Low Bollinger Band D1 and PP/R1/S1 at 0.32
Support 2 0.31 EMA200 D1
Resistance 1 0.33 EMA200 H1 and EMA20 D1
Resistance 2 0.34 EMA50 D1 and median Bollinger D1
Resistance 3 0.35 High Bollinger Band D1
Pivot (PP/R1/S1) 0.32 Non-discriminatory Pivot, use in conjunction with the EMAs

Operational Scenarios

Bullish

Trigger: D1 close above 0.33 (EMA20) for confirmation, with extension towards 0.34 (EMA50/BB mid).

A subsequent close above 0.34 would open space towards 0.35 (BB up).

Invalidation: return below 0.32.

Risk management: ATR D1 at 0.01 suggests technical stops 1.0–1.5x ATR beyond the key level (e.g., 0.01–0.02 beyond 0.33/0.34).

Bearish

Trigger: loss and D1 close below 0.32, with potential test of 0.31 (EMA200 D1).
Invalidation: recovery and close above 0.33.
Risk management: use ATR 0.01 to calibrate the stop beyond the pivot 0.32 and the EMAs.

Neutral (main scenario)

As long as the price remains between 0.31 and 0.34, the regime is sideways.

Operation of mean-reversion at 0.32 as the center, with confirmations from RSI (around 50) and behavior on the EMAs.

Invalidation: breakout with D1 close above 0.34 or below 0.31.

Given the compression (narrow Bollinger, low ATR), prepare for a volatility expansion.

Market Context

The market cap rebound (+5.37%) occurs in a context of high BTC dominance (57.05%) and a fear sentiment (38).

For TRX, this translates into potential limited participation of flows towards altcoins, as long as the market favors Bitcoin.

An improvement in sentiment and a slight decrease in dominance would be favorable for a breakout above 0.34.

DeFi Ecosystem

  • SUNSwap V3:
    Average daily fees 1Y: 104,530,126.43
    Average monthly fees 1Y: 3,181,897,048.62
    Change 1D: +41.93%, 7D: +98.49%, 30D: +40.76%
  • SUNSwap V2:
    Average daily fees 1Y: 9,708,211.62
    Average monthly fees 1Y: 295,517,961.60
    Change 1D: +89.42%, 7D: +292.87%, 30D: -9.17%
  • SUNSwap V1:
    Average daily fees 1Y: 10,433,349.19
    Average monthly fees 1Y: 317,591,149.48
    Change 1D: -63.40%, 7D: +40.60%, 30D: -95.87%
  • UniFi: total lifetime fees: 292,783
  • Permute (Bridge): total lifetime fees: 0

The data shows mixed dynamics: strong recent acceleration on SUNSwap V3 and V2, while V1 is contracting.

In the context of TRX, an increase in fees indicates greater on-chain activity, often leading to expansions in price volatility.

In summary

  • Main scenario: neutral on D1. Price at 0.32 below EMA20 (0.33) and EMA50 (0.34), but above EMA200 (0.31).
  • RSI D1 at 40.87: weak momentum but not oversold. MACD flat (0): absence of directional signal.
  • Narrow Bollinger Bands (0.32–0.35) and ATR D1 at 0.01: compressed volatility, breakout risk.
  • Intraday: H1 neutral with RSI 64.28 and M15 bullish (RSI 60.72), but immediate resistances at 0.33–0.34.
  • Pivot D1/H1/M15 all at 0.32: center of the range, useful for trigger and invalidation.

Disclaimer: analysis for informational purposes only, based solely on the data provided; it does not constitute financial advice.