Bitcoin tests support as momentum stays fragile

In summary

• BTC Analysis: D1 close at 108346.44 USDT sits below the 20/50/200 EMAs, keeping a cautious tone.
• RSI 14 at 40.69 → momentum below 50, signaling a downside tilt until buyers reclaim strength.
• MACD histogram at -896.84 → bearish pressure persists, confirming weak follow-through on bounces.
• Bollinger Bands: price below the middle band (115313.10 USDT) and closer to the lower band (102779.08 USDT) → rebounds could be limited.
• ATR 14 at 5089.29 USDT → elevated volatility; pivot PP at 108784.08 USDT marks an immediate inflection.

Multi-timeframe BTC Analysis

D1 — Daily trend

EMA: Price at 108346.44 USDT is below the EMA20 (112516.88 USDT), EMA50 (113830.93 USDT), and EMA200 (109102.04 USDT). This alignment shows sellers still in control on the higher timeframe.

RSI 14 sits at 40.69. Below 50 usually implies a bearish-to-neutral bias, suggesting buyers remain hesitant.

MACD: Line -2066.49 vs signal -1169.65 with a -896.84 histogram. Negative and widening momentum indicates rallies may fade unless a strong catalyst appears.

Bollinger Bands center at 115313.10 USDT with the lower band near 102779.08 USDT. Trading in the lower half signals pressure; a tag of the middle band would be the first sign of balance.

ATR 14 at 5089.29 USDT. Volatility is elevated, so risk control matters; wide swings can trap late entries.

Pivot: PP at 108784.08 USDT, R1 at 110094.45 USDT, S1 at 107036.08 USDT. Holding below PP keeps a defensive stance; reclaiming it could steady the tape.

H1 — Intraday bias

Price at 108342.66 USDT sits under EMA20 (109002.05 USDT), EMA50 (109145.29 USDT), and EMA200 (110419.67 USDT). Short-term trend is weak, so upticks may meet supply.

RSI 14 at 41.32. Sub-50 momentum hints at sluggish buying.

MACD: -544.91 vs -360.10 with a -184.81 histogram. Bearish but less aggressive than D1, implying potential for pauses rather than strong reversals.

Bollinger: Mid at 109408.86 USDT, lower at 106831.24 USDT. Price near the lower half suggests continuation risk if buyers fail to defend local supports.

ATR at 637.36 USDT. Intraday moves can accelerate around the pivot.

Pivot: PP 108340.42 USDT, R1 108511.04 USDT, S1 108172.05 USDT. Price hovering around PP makes this a key decision zone.

M15 — Micro structure

EMA: Price at 108302.35 USDT above EMA20 (108082.04 USDT) but below EMA50 (108609.90 USDT) and EMA200 (109075.85 USDT). A small bounce is forming, yet broader context stays heavy.

RSI14 at 53.19. Slightly positive, hinting at a minor intraday recovery attempt.

MACD: -80.03 vs -219.49 with a +139.47 histogram. Short-term momentum is flipping up, suggesting a fragile rebound.

Bollinger: Mid at 107927.12 USDT; price is leaning toward the upper band at 108448.07 USDT. If momentum fades here, sellers might reappear.

ATR 14 at 284.22 USDT. Volatility is tight relative to D1, favoring quick rotations.

Pivot: PP 108321.22 USDT, R1 108340.10 USDT, S1 108283.48 USDT. Micro pivot tests reflect indecision.

Overall, D1 is neutral-to-bearish while H1 leans bearish and M15 shows a tentative bounce — a cautious BTC Analysis backdrop. For more on recent macro and technical trends in the Bitcoin market, see this analysis from Kraken’s Thomas Perfumo.

Key levels — BTC Analysis

Trading scenarios — BTC Analysis

Bullish

Trigger: A sustained H1/D1 push above 110094.45 USDT (R1) could invite follow-through toward 112516.88 USDT (EMA20), then 113830.93 USDT (EMA50). Invalidation: A drop back below 108784.08 USDT (PP). Risk: Consider stops around 0.5–1.0× D1 ATR (~2544.65–5089.29 USDT). Idea: Strength above R1 would signal improving momentum in this BTC Analysis.

Bearish

Trigger: An H1 close below 108172.05 USDT (S1 H1) followed by pressure through 107036.08 USDT (S1 D1) could open room toward 102779.08 USDT (lower band). Invalidation: Recovery above 109102.04 USDT (EMA200 D1). Risk: Stops 0.5–1.0× D1 ATR to account for volatility. Idea: Failure to reclaim PP keeps sellers engaged.

Neutral (main)

Trigger: As long as price oscillates between 110094.45 USDT (R1) and 107036.08 USDT (S1), range tactics may dominate around 108784.08 USDT (PP). Targets: Range edges with partials near 109102.04 USDT (EMA200). Invalidation: A decisive D1 close above EMA20 or below the lower band. Risk: Keep sizing modest with 0.5× ATR while volatility remains high. Overall tone is balanced but fragile in this BTC Analysis. For more views on BTC trading, see this in-depth August 2025 review from The Cryptonomist.

Market context — BTC Analysis

Total crypto market cap: 3761306675898.93 USD; 24h change: -2.50%. BTC dominance: 57.49%. Fear & Greed Index: 34 (Fear). High dominance and Fear sentiment usually weigh on altcoins, while bitcoin price action steers broader risk appetite.

For traders tracking the bitcoin price today, conditions remain choppy. If the current bitcoin price stabilizes above key pivots, risk could compress; otherwise, volatility may persist. This technical analysis keeps focus on support and resistance rather than a bitcoin price prediction. For the latest official details on Bitcoin, visit the official Bitcoin website.

Ecosystem

DEX fees show mixed participation: Uniswap V3 1d fees change +8.71% but -29.01% over 7d; Uniswap V2 -36.10% 1d yet +1948.05% over 30d; Curve DEX -27.31% 1d and -54.01% 7d; Fluid DEX soft across all windows; Uniswap V4 also lower over 1d/7d. Mixed fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms. See also how recent institutional strategies are impacting Bitcoin accumulation trends.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR