In summary
- Price at 114,170.10 USDT sits just above the daily pivot.
- RSI 53.27 on D1 → slight bullish tilt, momentum still fragile.
- MACD turns positive histogram on D1 while H1 stays soft.
- The mix suggests range-bound action; BTC Analysis remains balanced.
BTC Analysis — Daily (D1)
Trend/EMAs: Price at 114,170.10 USDT trades above the 20/50/200 EMAs (112,411.05 / 113,395.48 / 109,356.64). This shows a slight bullish structure, as buyers keep price above key trend gauges.
RSI (14): 53.27, marginally above 50. This signals a neutral-to-bullish bias, but not a dominant uptrend.
MACD: Line -629.75 vs signal -1,238.70 with a +608.95 histogram. Line above signal and histogram positive indicate improving momentum from below zero, often an early recovery phase.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 111,570.75; upper 118,633.95; lower 104,507.55. Price sits between mid and upper band, implying moderate buying interest without overextension.
ATR (14): 3,348.20. Daily volatility is elevated; risk control may require wider stops and measured position sizing.
Pivots: PP 114,066.87; R1 114,650.43; S1 113,586.53. Hovering just above PP suggests a balanced session with nearby triggers in either direction.
Overall, D1 stays neutral with a mild bullish lean as long as price holds above EMA20.
BTC Analysis — Intraday (H1)
Trend/EMAs: Price is below EMA20 (114,332.83) but above EMA50/200 (113,975.41 / 111,730.23). This points to minor intraday softness within a broader uptrend.
RSI (14): 47.62, slightly under 50. Intraday bias leans bearish, hinting at hesitant buyers.
MACD: Line -147.49 below signal -38.51 with a -108.97 histogram. Negative momentum shows pressure from sellers in the short term.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 114,533.16; upper 115,733.60; lower 113,332.73. Price below the mid band signals range drift toward support.
ATR (14): 503.66. Typical hourly swings near 500 USDT imply tactical risk management for intraday plans.
Pivots: PP 114,192.47; R1 114,293.42; S1 114,069.14. Trading just under PP keeps the edge with sellers unless reclaimed.
BTC Analysis — Micro (M15)
Trend/EMAs: Price 114,188.97 above EMA20 (113,987.91) and EMA200 (114,024.03) but just under EMA50 (114,214.20). Micro trend is constructive, yet capped by the 50-EMA.
RSI (14): 55.56, modestly bullish. Near-term buyers have a slight edge.
MACD: Line -43.06 above signal -106.61 with a +63.55 histogram. A fresh cross supports short bursts higher.
Bollinger Bands: Mid 113,903.84; upper 114,179.55; lower 113,628.12. Price nudging above the upper band hints at a brief overextension that often mean-reverts.
ATR (14): 194.64. Micro volatility is contained, favoring tight levels for execution.
Pivots: PP 114,172.85; R1 114,245.96; S1 114,115.86. Holding above PP keeps the near-term tone positive.
Daily is neutral, H1 tilts soft, and M15 is mildly constructive—overall a cautious, range-biased structure into today’s session.
Key levels
| Level | Type | Bias/Note |
|---|---|---|
| 118,633.95 | Bollinger upper (D1) | Major resistance / stretch target |
| 114,650.43 | R1 (D1 Pivot) | First resistance above daily PP |
| 114,533.16 | Bollinger mid (H1) | Intraday mean; reclaim strengthens bids |
| 114,293.42 | R1 (H1 Pivot) | Intraday breakout trigger |
| 114,192.47 | PP (H1) | Intraday balance point |
| 114,172.85 | PP (M15) | Micro balance point |
| 114,066.87 | PP (D1) | Daily balance; key pivot |
| 113,586.53 | S1 (D1 Pivot) | First support |
| 113,395.48 | EMA50 (D1) | Dynamic support |
| 112,411.05 | EMA20 (D1) | Trend support |
| 111,570.75 | Bollinger mid (D1) | Mean reversion zone |
| 109,356.64 | EMA200 (D1) | Major trend support |
| 104,507.55 | Bollinger lower (D1) | Extreme support |
Trading scenarios
Bullish BTC Analysis
Trigger: Hold above 114,066.87 (D1 PP) and break 114,293.42 (H1 R1), then 114,650.43 (D1 R1).
Target: 115,733.60 (H1 upper band), then 118,633.95 (D1 upper band).
Invalidation: Close back below 113,586.53 (D1 S1).
Risk: Consider 0.5–1.0× ATR for stops (D1 ATR ≈ 1,674–3,348 USDT).
Bearish BTC Analysis
Trigger: Fail to reclaim 114,192.47 (H1 PP) and lose 114,066.87 (D1 PP) on momentum.
Target: 113,586.53 (D1 S1), then 112,411.05 (D1 EMA20) or 111,570.75 (D1 Boll mid).
Invalidation: Strong close above 114,650.43 (D1 R1).
Risk: 0.5–1.0× ATR on H1 for tighter control (≈ 252–504 USDT).
Neutral (main)
Trigger: As long as price oscillates between 113,586.53 and 114,650.43, fading moves back toward 114,066.87 (D1 PP) could remain valid.
Target: Reversions to the daily pivot; stretch tests near intraday R1/S1.
Invalidation: A decisive breakout beyond R1/S1 with confirming momentum shifts (RSI/MACD).
Risk: 0.25–0.5× ATR on M15 (≈ 49–97 USDT) to reflect range conditions.
Market context
Total crypto market cap: 3.95T USD, with a 24h change of -1.14%.
BTC dominance: 57.63% — leadership remains firm.
Fear & Greed Index: 50 (Neutral) — positioning is balanced.
High BTC dominance with neutral sentiment typically keeps altcoin beta contained while Bitcoin guides direction.
Ecosystem (DeFi/DEX)
Uniswap V3: 1d fees +46.09%; Uniswap V4: 1d +91.89% and 7d +47.55%; Curve DEX: 1d +66.83% and 7d +281.51%; Fluid DEX: 1d +53.88% but 30d -9.96%. Uniswap V2 shows -100% on 7d/30d (not provided beyond that).
Mixed fee dynamics suggest selective participation across DeFi venues as volatility rotates.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR
