A grim forecast regarding the price of Bitcoin is circulating. In fact, today, which is the last Friday of the month, options on BTC and ETH worth a staggering 16 billion dollars are expiring.
According to some analysts, this is destined to give another jolt to the crypto markets.
The expiration of BTC options
The point is that once the options expire, they can no longer be used.
So anyone holding those 16 billion dollars in options on BTC must use them today, or forever forgo using them, and since purchasing them had a cost, more than one holder might be tempted to use them.
The problem is that the peak of put options, which allow selling at a predetermined price, is set at a price of $100,000, which is significantly less than the current $109,000. However, it would make little sense to sell at $100,000 with a put option if one can sell spot at $109,000, but this latter figure can still fluctuate throughout the day.
However, there is also a peak slightly more than half of the main one set at a price of $110,000, and it seems quite likely that at least those options will be used today, as they could allow, for example, selling at $110,000 and then perhaps buying back at $109,000.
The impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
The first consequence, easily predictable, is an increase in volatility.
In theory, this in itself might not be a problem, because volatility can be both upwards and downwards, but at a time like this, it seems more likely that the downward trend might prevail.
Therefore, if there is sustained volatility today, it is possible that this could lead to a further decline in the price of Bitcoin.
The fact is that today’s options expirations are, in terms of size, one of the largest monthly events of all 2025 in crypto derivatives, therefore the effect on the markets could be particularly sustained.
It should also be added that the put/call ratio, equal to 0.70, actually indicates a slight bullish inclination among traders, but it might not be enough.
Adding to all this is the fact that at this moment the crypto market, according to analysts at Greeks.live, is “fragile and without bids,” following recent liquidations, thus making a bearish tendency more likely.
The bleak forecasts on BTC
In general, two bearish forecasts are circulating.
The first, in the medium-short term, suggests that the price of Bitcoin could even drop to $90,000 within a few days.
The second, in the medium or medium-long term, even argues that it is entering a full bear-market.
However, there is at least one dynamic currently underway that also allows us to envision a different future.
This is about the trend of the Dollar Index. In the medium term, the price trend of Bitcoin is inversely correlated with that of the Dollar Index, therefore if DXY rises, the price of Bitcoin tends to fall.
In fact, in the short term, not only is the Dollar Index continuing to rise, but it is absolutely likely that it may continue to do so for a few more days.
Compared to the short-term forecasts on the Dollar Index, the prediction of Bitcoin at $90,000 seems absolutely justified.
