The first weekend of the new year has become highly eventful as the United States carried out a quick and successful military operation against Venezuela. After blaming the country’s officials for certain drug operations, the US military bombed its capital, Caracas, and arrested its leader, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife.
In his first interview and address to the nation after the attacks, US President Donald Trump claimed that his country will now run the oil industry in Venezuela, which reportedly has over 300 billion barrels of oil, valued at more than $17 trillion at market prices.
One of the statements he made caused even more controversy as he claimed that he didn’t tell Congress about the military operation, as it would have leaked. The democrats used this opportunity to criticize Trump’s actions, including Senate Leader Chuck Schumer, who called the attacks “reckless.”
He also warned that any plan for the US to run Venezuela should “strike fear in the hearts of all Americans.” He added that the Trump administration had denied pursuing regime change or military action, which was evidently not the case.
Some reports indicated later that the Trump impeachment odds reached a new all-time high on prediction platforms such as Kalshi. However, a closer look at the charts today actually shows a different story.
The odds on both Kalshi and Polymarket have declined slightly since the start of the year on almost all scales (by June 1, 2026, January 1, 2027, and January 1, 2028).
The chances for an impeachment by December 31, 2026, on Polymarket have declined by 3% since the attacks took place.
Interestingly, the attacks against Venezuela have impacted the two largest cryptocurrencies linked to the US President. Aside from BTC jumping past $91,000 for the first time since mid-December, WLFI has skyrocketed by more than 16% on a daily scale to almost $0.18. TRUMP has returned to the top 100 alts, soaring 7.5% to $5.40.
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