Defying the efforts of the bears, the $BTC price rose all the way back to the major $90,000 level and was rejected from a huge wall of resistance. Was this the last chance of a breakout from the bulls? Is the general market consensus of a large reversal about to take place?
Strong rejection at major $90,000 resistance
Source: TradingView
As the $BTC price rose to confirm the breakdown of the bear flag, and kept on going, there was a fleeting moment of excitement for the bulls. The price rallied up as far as the $90,000 horizontal resistance, but was met there with solid reality and a strong rejection.
It can be seen in the 4-hour chart above that as the price meandered up on its way to $90,000, it formed a relatively short ascending channel. Once the rejection occurred, the price fell to the bottom of the channel and then tumbled out. A measured move would take the price down to just below $87,000.
As the price is now falling out of the channel, it has paused and is perhaps forming a small bear flag. If this is the case, the measured move from this flag would bring the price down to nearly $85,000.
Notwithstanding, amidst these small bearish patterns, a bigger pattern has emerged, and this one is bullish. It comes in the form of a falling wedge (light green triangle). If the $BTC price is held up at the major horizontal support, plus the bottom of this wedge pattern, a bounce could happen and send the price to the top of the wedge and a potential breakout. The measured move for this bullish breakout could send the price to a new local high at around $98,000.
Two falling wedges
Source: TradingView
Moving out into the daily time frame gives us more of a perspective on the size of the falling wedge pattern. Although extremely small in comparison to its huge neighbour on the left, it can still pack a punch and send the $BTC price up to just below $100,000 – near the top of the bear flag.
Could it be that this smaller wedge could open the path to a much greater measured move out of the large falling wedge already mentioned? The move out of this wedge takes the price right up almost to the 8-year trendline that can just be seen at the top left of the chart. It could also mean a potential new all-time high.
This bull market following the bull market of 2021?
Source: TradingView
Zooming out into the very high time frame of the monthly, we can perhaps compare the 2021 bull market with this one. Firstly, we can see that when the $BTC price moved up to its first peak in 2019 it then went sideways and down for an extended period of time. Could this correspond to the 8-month bull flag in 2024? From here there was a first major peak at the beginning of 2021, which could match the peak in early 2025, and then finally the higher peak of the bull market top towards the end of 2021 – could this reconcile to the all-time high later in 2025?
Of course, it could be argued that at least one of the previous bull market cycles did not act in a similar way. Also, as Bitcoin starts to mature, it could be that it’s starting to behave differently.
One thing to bear in mind, and it’s not a technical analysis factor, is that around $9 trillion needs to be printed this year in order to service and roll over a huge chunk of US debt. While this debasement of the currency is occurring, and assets like gold and silver are shooting ever higher, is Bitcoin just going to keep on foundering down into a year-long bear market? Food for thought.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
